Trading deadlines approaching

And with them comes the last round of "here's how to trade" articles from the 'experts'.

One thing I've failed to mention thus far: what's the logic in recommending players to trade FOR and then putting it out there so EVERYONE can see it? For example, a Yahoo! article says "Go get Packers!". Okay, well, the guys with Packers have read that, too. Do you think they'll allow themselves to be swindled or even take part in otherwise fair trades? I think not.

My advice: go get good players first and then try to get some depth, team be damned. Remember, big players make big plays in big games and sometimes big players come up small in non-big games.

Please sir, may I have some more (bad advice)?

I WISH I could offer some more kudos today, but there's nothing worthy out there.

Sportsline's 'Sit of the Week' is MoJo Drew. I can partially understand that, since he's facing the Titans. What Eisenberg forgot to mention was that if your league counts kickoff/punt return TDs for individual players, MoJo should be in there just in case.

Then there's this piece of dreck from FoxSports. My favorite parts are:

Talk to the guys at the top of the standings, because they have guys on their bench that are scoring. Don't let them hoard them, make a deal. It's now or never.

and

If you're not talking Larry Johnson or Lee Evans, who are both going to have bust-out second halves, everybody should be available. Look for solid 2-for-1 trade deals. Now is the time for consistency. You have to fill four stat boxes a week with double digits to have chance at winning.

First of all, the top teams have guys on their bench who can score because they picked their team well and value the depth. So you're NOT going to trade your one measely stud for 2 of the other team's bench players. Second of all, I've found it VERY hard to pull off 2-for-1 deals, but maybe that's just the leagues I've been in. What do you all think? Thirdly, this article was written AFTER LJ's recent health woes. How does this guy justify saying that he'll 'bust-out' in the 2nd half? He'll probably just be a bust.

Your best bet is what the writer mentions last: use the waiver wire. You're a low ranked team; use it to your advantage and claim ANYONE you think may help.

Really, at this point, you're just playing for pride. You need to cut your losses and focus efforts on your other teams that are doing better. Just make sure your lineup is legal every week (preferably containing viable players). It's common courtesy!!!! :)

The smell of fall is in the air...

And so is the smell of desperation coming from the 'experts'. Specifically, I'm talking about all of them desperate to find the next hot RB to recommend be plucked from the waiver wire. I'm hearing names like Justin Fargas, Ron Dayne (who's ON A BYE THIS WEEK), that other guy in Houston who has a very long name (and is also on a bye), Priest Holmes, Priest Holmes' backup (or is Holmes the backup there? Very confusing) and... Michael Pittman.

My favorite quote was actually a Pittman quote, 'cleverly' disguised as a Kevin Faulk quote, from Rotoworld's Pancake Blocks: "Kevin Faulk - A poor man’s Michael Pittman. You know what you are going to get and can always hope for a Maroney injury." If you scan down to the comments, you'll see that this humble blogger attempted to show Gregg the error of his ways :).

In other 'around the web' news, I think the reason I haven't actually... you know... been 'going around the web' is that all the 'experts' have fallen into their routines, which I identified over a month ago. You've got the guys who upgrade players who had one good week (and vice versa), the guys who want to be Deadspin commenters and then the rest who actually make decent points.

So, let's try something different. Let's recognize any attempt by these guys to 'break form'. Here we go...

East Coast Offense checks in with this item that parrots what I've been saying since day 1:

(Regarding Adrian Peterson) But it also made everyone who drafted or traded for Peterson this year feel like geniuses. (I feel like an idiot because I traded Peterson and Kevin Jones for LaDainian Tomlinson and Calvin Johnson in a league two weeks ago). A good rule of thumb is that when something amazing happens, more people feel like idiots than geniuses, and rightly so, because idiots will always outnumber geniuses.

Actually, he's only ALMOST got it right; the truth is you'll only FEEL like an idiot if you put yourself in a position to LOOK LIKE one. The solution is simple: don't make idiotic trades (and when in doubt, don't trade at all!). Sure, you may spend a Sunday or three muttering under your breath about 'the deal you should have made', but no one else knows it was possible (even the guy on the other end has most likely moved on). If you lose and don't make any idiotic trades, chances are you'll appear unlucky (unless you also drafted idioticly). But if you DID make those trades, you WILL appear like an idiot. I guess the worst case is first you drafted badly and then you make bad trades. In this case, you may want to pick a new hobby. Okay, I'm rambling... time for more kudos.

Bringin' the Noise has a decent treatise on why drafting a bunch of QBs in 2008 may not be the best idea. Here's a hint: there are still a bunch of good RBs that won't be in committees next year and you'll probably start at least 2 RBs (but 1 QB)in most of your leagues. Good job, Noise-guy!

Fantasy vs. Reality

Fantasy: Andy Reid will be able to put his family situation out of his mind and successfully coach the Eagles.

Reality: The Eagles, especially McNabb, will not be successful until they force Reid out the door and hand the keys to any other coach in the organization (except, maybe Marty Morhinweg).

I went into the Sunday night game down by about 30 (opponent had Peterson and Moss). All I really needed was my McNabb to cancel out his Romo (either by McNabb playing well or by the Eagles D limiting Romo) and Westbrook to get about 20 (I have Mason and Stover tonight and figure they'll get me 10). Well, only Westbrook held up his end of the deal and he needed garbage time to do that.

I seriously need to think about using Jeff Garcia once the playoffs start. Any thoughts from you two readers? :)

We interrupt our regularly scheduled programming...

I'll take a bit of a break from my "How'm I doin'?" mid-season retrospective to bring up this latest bit of idiocy from Yahoo's Noise-maker, Brad Evans:

He's got "Kenny Watson / Rudi Johnson" listed as a "Flame"! BOTH OF THEM! "If both are active, each is worthy of a flex start in 12-team leagues, but anticipate a near 50-50 split in carries." So if you own both, you should start both? That sounds like a major waste of a roster spot, if you ask me.

Meanwhile, in "So it's come to this..." news, a lot of experts are slurping QB Sage Rosenfels (HOU) and MIN's TE, Vincente Shianco as decent bye week replacements. Now, if you drafted Matt Schaub as a bye week replacement, MAYBE you have to give Sage a start. And yes, I don't advocate keeping 2 TEs on the roster, but you HAD to know this day was coming and prepare, right? If so, good luck with Vincente, but a little foresight could've netted you one of the CHI TEs or Owen Daniels.

How'm I doin'? (QBs and WRs)

No errors in judgement with respect to the Top 3: Brady, Manning and Palmer. I'd like to think I was correct with my concern that Brees could fall back down to Earth, as he did for a time. McNabb may have been ranked a bit high, but I think he'll be fine.

If I recall the next 'tier' correctly, it contained guys like Hasselbeck (consistently good and a key member of two of my better teams), Romo (whom I ranked a bit low just in case), Big Ben (performingly nicely in the new offense), Cutler & Kitna (both decent) and... Leinart (oops!).

Next was Vince Young (whom, if 'intangibles' lead to fantasy points, he'd be all-World, but they don't, so he sucks), Eli Manning (decent first half, but he seems to fall apart when the weather gets cold, so the jury's still out), Favre (hey, he looked like crap last year; who knew?) and Grossman (another oops).

Rounding out the pack were guys like McNair (bad), Garcia (much better than advertised) and the usual gang of idiots like Harrington, Leftwich, Schaub and Losman.

All in all, I think I did okay with QBs.

Now, about those WRs.

I don't think anyone could've predicted Randy Moss making the leap up the board that he did. Nor the fall down Harrison and Smith have made. Beyond that, the one guy I'd like to address is Deion Branch (my other man-crush, next to kicker Matt Stover). Before his injury, he was playing up to the level I ranked him (but was always able to draft him in later rounds, creating tremendous value). I'm hoping he returns to form this week.

How'm I doin'? (updated 10/31)

Those of you who grew up in or around NYC while Ed Koch was mayor may recognize the above question :).

I've resisted the urge up until now to really talk about my four teams. However, now that we're halfway through the real regular season and a bit more than halfway through the fantasy season (assuming playoffs start in week 14), I thought I'd share that info with you, as well as how I think I did with some of my pre- and in-season predictions.

My teams are 6-2, 6-2, 5-3 and.... 2-6. The runt of the litter contains such luminaries as Larry Johnson, Steve Smith and Laurence Maroney. To be fair, I would've had another win had I added Sammy Morris before NE's Monday night game a while back and I DID only lose this past week by 3. Still, the playoffs are just about out of the picture and I now need to save my remaining 4 add/drops to help me in the inevitable 'losers bracket'. The 5-3 team would've also been 6-2 had I not benched Willie Parker for Lamont Jordan, but I already apologized to y'all for that.

Now, as for my pre-season RB rankings (in order, as far as I can recall).

LT2 is still the unquestioned #1. SJax, however, is far from 2nd best, but who could've predicted the mess that the Rams have become? Addai at #3 looked a bit shaky for 3 weeks, but I think he'll be fine. Maroney at #4 was a major oops. Things get hazy now (next year, I'll take a screen-capture of my rankings prior to Week 1), but I think Gore was #5. He played like it for a time, but losing Alex Smith hurt and now Gore himself is hurt. Rounding out the top 10, I seem to recall names like Shaun Alexander (bust), Willie Parker (great, but only 2 TDs), Brian Westbrook (outstanding), LJ (bust early, stud now) and Travis Henry (high).

In the next 'tier' were Edge (decent and now has an easy schedule), Bush and MoJo (coming on), Brandon Jacobs (only now living up to his hype/potential), Ronnie Brown (stud until a torn ACL), Rudi Johnson, Cedric Benson and Thomas Jones (bust, bustier and bustiest). Remember, though, that this tier should've been drafted behind the first tier of QBs and the first 1 or 2 tiers of WRs. So, in other words, the busts shouldn't have gone early. If they did, their owners are probably hurtin' right now.

Below that were the good surprises, like McGahee (has the yards, albeit not the TDs) and Marshawn Lynch (hey, he looked like utter crap in the pre-season) and the predictable flops like Clinton Portis (due to a timeshare). Also the TBDs like Kevin Jones (whom I still maintain would re-injure himself were I to acquire him) and the good Adrian Peterson (who rocketed up my board faster than anyone else).

Bottom line: I was really REALLY wrong about Maroney, but I would like to think my cautious nature on the rest was accurate. Let's face it, if Gore fell to you at #5 or Alexander at ... wherever I had ranked him, you HAD to take him there due to the risk/reward ratio. It sucks that it didn't work out, but hopefully you got something better coming back the other way in Round 2.

You may want to argue that some of these 'busts' were really the result of injuries, such as Gore and Brown. To that I say "I factored injury concerns into my initial rankings, so there!" :)

Tomorrow I hope to tackle QBs and some WRs.